A temperature-dependent mechanical model to assess the stability of degrading permafrost rock slopes

Abstract. Over the last 2 decades, permafrost degradation has been observed to be a major driver of enhanced rock slope instability and associated hazards in high mountains. While thermal regime mountains addressed several modelling approaches, no mechanical models that thoroughly explain destabilisation controls degrading have developed. Meanwhile, recent laboratory studies shown affects both, ice strength parameters as well rock–ice interfaces. This study presents first general approach for temperature-dependent numerical stability model simulates response warming thawing slope. The proposed procedure is exemplified using rockslide at permafrost-affected Zugspitze summit crest. Laboratory tests on frozen unfrozen joint intact properties provide material discontinuum developed with Universal Distinct Element Code (UDEC). Geophysical geotechnical field surveys reveal information distribution fracture network. can demonstrate how decreases critical level why initiates failure. A generalised sensitivity analysis simplified geometry trajectory below 0 ?C shows progressive close melting point above angle 50–62?, depending orientation increase displacements intensifies steps closer ?C. applied slopes (i) which warm ?4 ?C, (ii) ice-filled joints, (iii) fractured limestone or probably most types relevant failure, (iv) wide range angles (30–70?) orientations network (consisting three sets). Here, we present benchmark capable assessing future slopes.